Weather Forecasting: Traditional Knowledge of the People of Uttarakhand Himalaya

Aims: The objective of this study is to highlight and document indigenous weather forecasting knowledge of the people of Higher Himalaya in Uttarakhand so that the same could be improvised and used effectively for disaster risk reduction in remote and inaccessible areas.

Study Design: The study is based on interactions with the community members in identified habitations of the four valleys selected for this research in Uttarakhand Himalaya.

Place and Duration of Study: Four valleys in the state of Uttarakhand, India are taken up for the study; Johar, Byans and Niti valleys together with upper reaches of Bhagirathi valley. The data is collected between June 2012 and January 2015 through fieldwork carried out in the area.

Methodology: The present study is based on the response of 871 persons of the selected 73 Higher Himalayan villages of Uttarakhand, recorded using a specially designed semi-structured questionnaire. Besides this, perception of the people is also gathered through focused group discussions, in-depth interviews and key informant interviews. Special care is taken to select elderly people for response as they have memories of longer time span and 50 percent of the respondents are more than 50 years in age. Special care is also taken to ensure gender balance.

Conclusion: Traditional weather forecasting is used by the people of the study area for local level decision making in pursuits related to travel and agriculture as also for capturing timely information related to possible hazardous events. It is perceived that the traditional knowledge of the people is based upon uniformity of weather pattern that has lately been disturbed by climate change. People are therefore finding it increasingly difficult to use this knowledge effectively. The elderly persons however have faith in this knowledge. Backed with their experience they are able to improvise and include more reliable indicators for weather prediction. Formal recognition is however a must for these practices to be better utilized by the masses as also for planning process. Integrating this knowledge with the modern science can help in better understanding of various climate related parameters and in managing climate risk.